Random thoughts on July 10th, 2008

There are three things that look deceptively easy in life; politics, sports, and stock market. It's very easy to observe and comment on all three categories until one decides to play.

I read an article yesterday about Korean national soccer team. The reporter asked to a former coach why the current team cannot capitalize on many good chances and people are getting really upset about this team. What he said rung truth: "We have had those criticisms for the last 40 years. It's not something new. There are too many experts on how to win games in the country. " It's so true that I grew up watching and screaming onto the TV screen how stupid those players miss and how the coaches' strategies are idiotic at best, etc. I did not know much about the game of soccer then nor do I know more now after decades.

The same logic applies to politics and stock market. They are deceptively too easy to grasp on surface yet once you start playing yourself, you quickly realize you are just like everyone else. It's not that easy to do certain things your way until you gain deep and wide understanding as well as handle brisk executions. The rule of 10 or more like 1% applies here as well. The problem is most people think they can crack 1% when they never even cracked 1% in their tiny high schools (I tip my hat to those who do crack 1% including 4 TD Al Bundy). People sound like gaining all those pounds and years worth pork chops would somehow make them smarter and wiser. Not necessarily so.

Anyway, the thought just started after reading about Bill Miller's horrific record this year as the lead cheerleader. He bet enormously successfully for a long time until a few years ago and now he bet enormously unsuccessfully by betting on Financials and not betting on oil. Could someone easily say he is dumb now? Yeah, I bet a lot of people say that now but it just shows playing the market (regardless what the strategies are, values, growth, voodoo, horoscope, etc) is not like making worthless comments on what he should have done. Sure it's fun to poke at the guy who fell but sure it's no fun if it were you.

I'm sure as heck there are tons of experts out there but I happen to find the real one with rarity. Again, 1% rule of finding the real one applies anywhere in life.